Russia: Nations in Transit 2024 Country Report | Freedom House (2024)

header3 Executive Summary

In 2023, the Russian government doubled down on its authoritarian tactics as the Putin regime further curtailed freedom of speech; used violence, threats, and politicized arrests and prosecutions to intimidate its enemies; and intensified propaganda in an effort to maintain the support of citizens. After two years of war in Ukraine, Russian society has become increasingly isolated and resentful, deeply influenced by anti-Western propaganda, belligerent narratives, and patriotic appeals. In this environment, civic expression remains constrained and most Russians avoid any unsanctioned political activities.1 The Ukraine war remained the predominant issue, despite the authorities’ efforts to portray normality through regular elections and diverting citizens’ attention to non-war-related matters.2 Ukrainian military incursions into the border regions of Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk persisted. These areas have endured shelling, drone assaults, and infiltrations by military units claiming to be Russians fighting on the Ukrainian side.3

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The unexpected armed mutiny led by Yevgenii Prigozhin, a former Putin ally and head of the government-funded mercenary group PMC Wagner (better known as the Wagner Group), shook Russia in 2023. During Prighozhin’s “march of fairness” from Rostov-on-Don towards Moscow, at least 13 soldiers died in clashes with the Russian army. The mutiny ended after Belarusian President Aliaksandar Lukashenko brokered an agreement between the Wagner Group and the Kremlin, in which the Wagner Group agreed to end hostilities and retreated to Belarus.4 A few weeks later, an airplane carrying Prigozhin and another Wagner fighter, Dmitrii Utkin, exploded, killing all on board.5 Independent investigators suspect that the Russian government may have been responsible for the crash.6 The political impact of the mutiny and Prighozin’s death should not be overstated, as it did not lead to any significant intra-elite clashes or defections. Nevertheless, the mutiny was widely interpreted as a reflection of tensions and vulnerabilities within the regime.7

The September elections, which spanned three days and encompassed 21 regional elections and more than 4,000 local electoral contests (including in the occupied Ukrainian territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia), ended in a landslide victory for Putin’s United Russia party.8

In March, the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague issued arrest warrants against Putin and Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova for the alleged unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.9 Days later, Russia reportedly opened criminal cases against ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan and three ICC judges.10

The government continued to crack down on political opponents in 2023. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny remained in prison in torturous conditions.11 In October, all of Navalny’s lawyers were arrested on bogus charges of extremism, severing Navalny’s last channel of communication with his allies and supporters.12 In August, a court sentenced Navalny to an additional 19 years in prison on charges related to “extremist activity,” extending his total prison sentence to more than 30 years.13 In April, journalist and political activist Vladimir Kara-Murza was sentenced to 25 years in prison for his opposition to the Ukraine war.14 Left-wing sociologist Boris Kagarlitsky was arrested in July on charges of “justifying terrorism.”15 Kagarlitsky faced up to seven years in prison for 2022 Telegram posts about the 2022 attack of the Kerch Bridge in Crimea.16 The Kremlin did not tolerate opposition from the right either: ultrapatriot Igor Girkin, who is better known by his nom de guerre Strelkov, faced charges of extremism.17

Russia continued to face unprecedented international sanctions, which had a tangible but limited effect on the economy. Sanctions affected 70 percent of banking assets, revenues from fossil fuels continued to diminish, and trade declined.18 Despite the sanctions, the Russian economy grew by 2 percent due to increased public spending, arms production.19 The budget deficit increased dramatically.20 The country pursued “regressive import substitution”—Russian consumers were offered outdated goods for higher prices to substitute for the lost imports.21

In 2023, Russia continued its isolationist course by withdrawing from major international treaties, including the New START treaty with the US on the strategic nuclear arsenal.22 The government also considered revoking Russia’s ratification of the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).23

Russia: Nations in Transit 2024 Country Report | Freedom House (2024)

References

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